12/28/2023 0 Comments Edge of ember reviewsThere is ample evidence that Europe must achieve a fully decarbonised power system by the mid 2030s for a pathway that keeps 1.5C in reach. The good news is all the technologies required to supercharge the transition are available and affordable, with wind and solar power forming the backbone of the transition. Decarbonising and expanding Europe’s electricity supply is the most effective way to displace fossil fuels across the economy, reducing reliance on imported energy. This is a necessity if Europe is to make a fair contribution to the goals of the Paris Agreement. The power sector is likely to be the fastest falling segment of gas demand during 2023, helping to bring calm to European gas markets as Europe adjusts to life without Russian gas.Īction this decade is critical, not only to address the immediate fossil fuel crisis, but to quickly bend the curve on emissions. Coal generation will fall, but gas generation will fall the fastest, since it is expected to remain more expensive than coal until at least 2025 based on current forward prices. Based on these indications from the industry, Ember estimates that fossil generation could plummet by 20% in 2023, double the previous record from 2020. The only brakes will be the fall in nuclear as Germany completes its phase-out. EDF forecasts many of its French nuclear plants will return in 2023 (and many are already back online already), Europe’s wind and solar industry groups show solar and wind generation should rise by about 20%, hydro stocks have nearly normalised and electricity demand will likely continue to fall in the short term. Based on the latest industry projections, this will not be repeated in 2023. In 2023, Europe is set to witness a huge fall in fossil fuels- of coal power, yes, but especially gas power.įossil generation rose 3% in 2022. Hydro generation will rebound, French nuclear units will return, wind and solar deployment will accelerate, and electricity demand will likely continue to fall over the coming months. The 28 TWh rise in EU’s coal generation added only 0.3% to global coal generation.Ģ023 will be quite the opposite. In context, the rise was not substantial: coal power increased by just 1.5 percentage points to generate 16% of EU electricity in 2022, remaining below 2018 levels. It could have been much worse: wind, solar and a fall in electricity demand prevented a much larger return to coal. Gas generation was almost unchanged (+0.8%), and because gas was already more expensive than coal in 2021, there was no further switching from gas into coal in 2022. As a result, EU power sector emissions rose by 3.9% (+26 MtCO2) in 2022 compared to 2021. Since coal was less expensive than gas, coal accounted for the majority of the increase, rising 7% (+28 TWh) in 2022, compared to 2021. But the remaining sixth was met by increased fossil generation. Five-sixths of the gap was made up by more wind and solar generation and a fall in electricity demand. This created a large 185 TWh gap in generation, equal to 7% of Europe’s total electricity demand in 2022. A 1-in-500 year drought across Europe led to the lowest level of hydro generation since at least 2000, and there were widespread unexpected French nuclear outages just as German nuclear units were closing. However, the shift away from fossil fuels was put on hold by the twin crises in Europe’s electricity system in 2022.
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